A researcher at Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights, Kim Young Hwan predicted, “The Kim Jong Eun system will be maintained for a while, and approximately 1,000 associates of Jang Sung Taek may be purged.”
Kim remarked in an interview with the South Korean media Joong Ang Sunday on December 20th that , “The execution of Jang Sung Taek is based on Kim Jong Eun’s judgment that Jang Sung Taek’s position in the regime poses a threat to Kim Jong Eun. Since Kim Jong Eun has established himself as the center of the government administration, it seems there will be no possibility of collapse in North Korea for a while.” Transforming from the father of a student movement of Juche Ideology to North Korean human rights activist, Kim Young Hwan has a deep understanding of North Korea. This is the first time he commented about the current situation of North Korea after the execution of Jang Sung Taek.
Q) Why do you think Jang Sung Taek was executed?
A) “Kim Jong Il advised Kim Jong Eun on how to maintain power from 2007, when he selected Jong Eun as the heir, until his death in December 2011. He may have suggested Kim Jong Eun remove Jang Sung Taek and Lee Young Ho, the Chief of the General Staff of the North Korean army, if he judged they were gaining too much authority or threatening his absolute control. The execution of Jang Sung Taek mirrors the purge of Lee Young Ho last year. Kim Jong Eun judged that his uncle posed a threat so he removed him.”
Q) So you mean there wasn’t any clear charge against Jang Sung Taek. Kim Jong Eun called for his execution based on his own decision?
A) “By looking at the sentencing for Jang Sung Taek’s execution, there isn’t any inclination of special guilt or a specific crime. North Korea is notorious for creating plausible guilt by torturing suspects; accused of conspiring against the regime. However, there wasn’t any suggestion of rebellion conspiracy in Jang Sung Taek’s sentencing. Kim Jong Il’s sense of perceived risk, developed throughout his political career, is different from Kim Jong Eun’s sense.’ Kim Jong Eun’s lack of experience may have caused him to execute Jang Sung Taek hastily. Kim Jong Eun lost his core assistant, who could give him reliable advice. This can be a fatal mistake.”
Q) There are also analyses that there were forces that called for the execution of Jang Sung Taek. If this is true, then the actual power of the North Korean regime belongs to them?
A) “Of course there might be some people who reported to Kim Jong Eun that Jang Sung Taek posed a threat, but the final decision came from Kim Jong Eun himself. This is the North Korean system. Additionally, Kim Jong Il purged executives who report distorted or exaggerated news to prevent himself from faltering as a dictator due to his subordinates’ false reports. It is highly possible that Kim Jong Eun learned this from Kim Jong Eun.”
Q) How do you view the observation that Choi Ryong Hae or military authorities will fill the vacuum in the North Korean power system that exists after the death of Jang Sung Taek?
A) “In North Korea a collective meaning of ‘military authorities’ doesn’t exist. Choi Ryong Hae is the same. After watching Jang Sung Taek’s cruel execution, he may not be inclined to accept the role of second in command. Accordingly, North Korea will continue as a one-man, Kim Jong Eun, system for a while.”
Q) How will Kim Jong Eun’s one-person system go?
A) “Kim Jong Eun’s desire for power may be firm because Kim Jong Il kindled Kim Jong Eun’s thirst for power for a long time. However, a strategy of government administration cannot be taught. By looking at the measures that the Kim Jong Eun regime enforced in the past two years, there isn’t any strategic consistence. He was moving around between peace and openness and provocation and closure and back. It is possible that he will continue with this inconsistent policy in the future. It also seems that he will maintain the parallel line between nuclear development and economic development. He seems to focus more on home administration than provocation. It is highly possible that he will accept an offer to talk with South Korea and the United States and will open appeasement to gain support from China.”
Q) Didn’t Kim Jong Eun deliver a threatening letter to the Blue House?
A) “Kim Jong Eun made the execution of his uncle Jang Sung Taek public through national TV and proudly executed him right after the trial. Also, he tends to field guidance more often than his father did. He likes to show something by coming forward. I think the way Kim Jong Eun combines appeasement with threatening South Korea isan example of his unique style which he likes to showcase. He is different from his father who avoided coming to the front and charged others with the responsibility of conducting purges during his terror of reign. The problem here is that Kim Jong Eun purged his uncle in rough manner and because of this his image as a tyrant was solidified.”
Q) Is there the possibility of the collapse of the Kim Jong Eun system?
A) “I don’t think there is a possibility of collapse for a while. I cannot be certain but his system is likely to be maintained for one or two years.”
Q) It seems Kim Jong Eun will purge the Jang Sung Taek force to some degree. What do you think of the rumor of purging 50,000 people?
A) “It seems the purging won’t be as large-scale as the previous purge of the South Workers’ Party Group and the Kapsan Faction. The South Workers’ Party Group and the Kapsan Faction were the major forces that threatened Kim Il Sung’s power so he had to enforce a large-scale purge. Jang Sung Taek’s force is not as big or strong. So, I think 1,000 people may be purged at most. Excessive purges can agitate North Korean society. Also, the number of talented people is low in North Korea, and if he enforces a large-scale purge the system could be paralyzed.”
Q) Since Jang Sung Taek was pro-China, there’s a rumor that China is upset by North Korea’s purge Jang Sung Taek.
A) “Jang Sung Taek was not as pro-China as many believe him so. China may be angry about its image was tarnished as the guardian country of North Korea after the cruel execution of Jang Sung Taek. Also, China might miss one of the few North Korean voices that could insist reform and openness.”
Q) Some view the purging of Jang Sung Taek as ‘completion of Kim Jong Eun’s one-leader system.’
A) “North Korea is a monarchy. From the moment Kim Jong Eun inherited power right after his father died in December 2011, he seemed to establish a one-leader system.”
Q) Recently, the commander of the US Forces in South Korea predicted, “It is highly possible that the North Korean authorities may commence hostilities against South Korea through cyber terror or other methods.” What do you think about this statement?
A) “When the internal situation is relaxed, North Korea usually provokes South Korea to tighten it. Currently North Korea is extremely tense stemming from the execution of Jang Sung Taek; therefore, it is less likely they will provoke the South. Kim Jong Il preferred to issue hostilities when no one predicted it because he enjoyed the thrill of issuing a surprise attack. If Kim Jong Eun is similar to his father, it is possible that he would provoke at an unpredictable time.”
Q) What should our government (the South Korean government) do?
A) “We should try to talk with North Korea, and at the same time we need to prepare for the possibility of a sudden change. We need to update all scenarios related to North Korea including operation plans that were made a long time ago. I don’t mean to suggest that the collapse of North Korea is imminent, but if we prepare for it now we can respond to a sudden change in the situation.”
Q) There have been so many hypotheses about the current circumstances in North Korea after the execution of Jang Sung Taek. What do you think about this?
A) “I would say that 80% of the stories that have been in the media until now are just ‘rumor.’ We cannot make conclusions based on the 20% that seem to be fact.”
